Market Risk Aversion Sentiment Rises, Pressuring Iron Ore Prices to Fluctuate and Decline [SMM Brief Review]

Today, the most-traded iron ore futures contract traded in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 796, down 0.31% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for selling; most steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, while some made purchases at lower levels. Market transaction sentiment was moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 790-793 yuan/mt, down 2-3 yuan/mt WoW; in Tangshan, transaction prices for PB fines were 795-805 yuan/mt, basically stable WoW.

Last week, global SMM iron ore shipments totaled 33.74 million mt, down 720,000 mt WoW. Shipments from Australia and non-mainstream countries dropped back slightly, while Brazilian shipments, unaffected by the recent port fire, rose slightly WoW. During the same period, China's arrivals totaled 26.04 million mt, down 2.45 million mt, or 8.6% WoW, with the short-term supply contraction supporting ore prices. However, market rumors of an iron ore conference on the 18th triggered a rise in risk-off sentiment, putting ore prices under pressure. Nevertheless, current hot metal production continues to rebound, coupled with the gradual start of pre-holiday stockpiling, rigid demand for iron ore still supports prices to stabilize and rebound. In addition, with expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts approaching, market sentiment is turning optimistic, which is also expected to push ore prices higher again.